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TAKE A CHANCE [DAY 3]

PROBABILITY OF A CHANCE EVENT

Express the probability of a chance event.

Intentionality

Spark Curiosity

Fuel Sensemaking

During Moves

Consolidation

Reflect and Consolidation Prompts

Resources & Downloads

Educator Discussion Area

Teach This Lesson

Facilitate this lesson with students!
PRESENTATION MODE

Intentionality & Unit Overview

Take a Chance [Day 1] | Data: Probability 3 Act Math Task

Length of Unit: 5 Days

Access each lesson from this unit using the navigation links below

DAY 1
DAY 2
DAY 3
DAY 4
DAY 5

Students will determine and compare the spinner’s theoretical and experimental probabilities.

Learning goals:

  • We will describe the likeliness of an event or outcome. 
  • We will use fractions to express the probability of a chance event.
  • We will represent the probability on a 0 to 1 number line. 
  • We will determine and compare a chance event’s theoretical and experimental probabilities.

Intentionality…

In this task, students will explore and compare theoretical and experimental probability by conducting trials. Leveraging the context from day 1 of the spinner, students will predict the outcome based on the theoretical probability and then conduct trials. Big ideas that may emerge in today’s lesson include: 

  • The theoretical probability of a chance event can be used to predict the likeliness of that event. 
  • The more trials done in an experiment, the closer the experimental probability will be to the theoretical probability.

Spark Curiosity

What Do You Notice? What Do You Wonder?

Show students the following video:

Then, ask students:

If we spin this particular spinner twelve times, how many times will we land on an odd number?

Give students 30 seconds (or more) of think time.

Then, ask students to share with their neighbours for another 30 seconds.

Engage in a brief group discussion about the theoretical probability of this particular event.

Sample response: 

Because six of the 12 parts are odd numbers, we predict we will land on an odd number half the time. Six of the spins will land on an odd number.  

Share the following video to test this theory. Alternatively, you can pull up any digital spinner with twelve equal parts. 

Ask students to record the results of this experiment. 

Estimation: Prompt

After viewing the video or testing this probability with your spinner, compare the results to your initial prediction. Did the spinner land on an odd number six times, half the spins? What could we do to get closer to half the spins? Perhaps spin some more? 

Fuel Sense-making

Crafting A Productive Struggle: Prompt

Theoretical probability is a calculation that helps us predict the likeliness of a chance event. Experimental probability is the results gathered from running many trials of an experiment. 

Let’s focus on our twelve-part spinner. 

Student Prompt: 

Make a prediction: 

If we spin the spinner 36 times, how many times will we land on a multiple of three? 

Experiment: 

Spin your spinner 36 times, and record the results. 

How did your experiment compare to your prediction?

Pdf link for spinner. 

Facilitator note: Students can create a paper spinner using the linked PDF, a pencil, and a paperclip. Alternatively, students can assess a digital twelve-part spinner labeled 1-12 to conduct this experiment.

During Moves

While Students Are Productively Struggling…

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Next Moves

Reveal

Show students the following reveal video:

Consolidation

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Reflect and Consolidation Prompts

Provide students an opportunity to reflect on their learning by offering these consolidation prompts.

Consolidation Prompt #1:

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Consolidation Prompt #2:

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We suggest collecting this reflection as an additional opportunity to engage in the formative assessment process to inform next steps for individual students as well as how the whole class will proceed.

Resources & Downloads

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Printable Lesson Plan PDF

Videos, Images & Media Files

Apple Keynote Presentation

Powerpoint Presentation

Printable Consolidation Prompts

Educator Discussion Area

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